Research: Climate change and Colombian coffee: The creation of a novel algorithm using CMIP6 climate prediction data
Mentor: Sol Vitkin
Awards: WESEF 2024- NOAA 2024 ”Taking the Pulse of the Planet” Award, Somers 2022- 2nd place in plant science
Research Location: Medellin, Colombia and Yonkers, New York
Abstract:
In Colombia, Arabica coffee is mainly grown and where it is one of the main sources of coffee production in South America. Climate change has been causing changes within the environment globally, especially the environmental factors best suited for coffee growth. Research on environmental factors on caffeine content and quality within coffee are limited, especially on Colombian arabica coffee that is grown within small-scale farms. The purpose of this research is to create an algorithm that will reveal the possible changes of environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation that will affect coffee quality and caffeine content due to climate change. The possible outcome will be that locations with the most drastic changes in temperature, decreased canopy cover, and an increase in precipitation will decrease the quality of Colombian coffee. Research will be conducted in three provinces that regularly produce coffee such as Armenia, Cali, and Rio Negro. Variables will be measured such as the elevation of the plant, the maximum and minimum temperatures, and precipitation to be the source of data. Materials such as data formatted from each 3 locations into excel and python 3.10 will be used. Related results have shown areas of increased precipitation with drastic increase in temperature will have decline crop yields. The expected results are that the coffee beans grown with increased precipitation and increased temperatures will be the most negatively affected by climate change. The significance of these findings is that not much research has been conducted on the declining quality of Colombian arabica coffee, specifically rural areas grown by local farmers. Such research is also important to the local economy of Colombia and how it will affect local farmers and will be significant in researching climate change and its effects on coffee production.
About this Scientist:
Valeria Toro is a senior at Yonkers High School currently pursuing her IB Diploma. She will be attending Vassar college as a mathematics major in the fall. After college she would like to pursue more than one master’s program in both finance and mathematics, hoping to learn how to apply the subject she most enjoys to the real world. Fun facts are that she loves to draw birds in her free time and does not believe in white colored socks, as in order to have the honor of being on her feet they must be fun and colorful to represent her silly personality.
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